NHL Advanced Stats — GAR, WAR, Expected Goals

Hockey Alchemy is an advanced NHL analytics platform: Goals Above Replacement (GAR), Wins Above Replacement (WAR), expected goals (xG), RAPM, Elo-based power rankings, Stanley Cup odds, and prospect pipeline coverage for the 2025-26 season.

Top Skaters by GAR — 2025-26

#PlayerTeamPosGAR
1Cole CaufieldMTLLW33.7
2Macklin CelebriniSJSC29.3
3Quinn HughesMINLD28.7
4Connor McDavidEDMC28.5
5Zach WerenskiCBJLD28.0
6Evan BouchardEDMRD27.5
7Tage ThompsonBUFRW27.2
8Nikita KucherovTBLRW26.9
9Nathan MacKinnonCOLC25.7
10Nick SuzukiMTLC24.4
11Lane HutsonMTLRD24.3
12Dylan GuentherUTARW24.2
13Jack EichelVGKC24.0
14Jason RobertsonDALLW23.6
15Alex DeBrincatDETLW22.8
16Nikolaj EhlersCARLW21.9
17Cutter GauthierANARW21.6
18Rasmus DahlinBUFD21.6
19Seth JarvisCARRW20.8
20Cale MakarCOLRD20.4

Top Goalies by GSAx — 2025-26

#GoalieTeamGSAx
1Jeremy SwaymanBOS34.8
2Ilya SorokinNYI29.6
3Logan ThompsonWSH24.1
4Jakub DobesMTL22.8
5Scott WedgewoodCOL19.0

NHL Teams

Eastern Conference

Western Conference

NHL Games — Jun 09, 2026

AwayHomeResult
Carolina Hurricanes@Vegas Golden KnightsPreview

Recent Analysis — The Lab

How We Calculate NHL Power Rankings: The Elo System Behind Hockey Alchemy

A transparent look at the Elo rating system that powers our NHL power rankings, game predictions, and Stanley Cup odds. K=12, home ice = 50 points, 30% regression to the mean — and three different ways we account for margin of victory.

How Predictive Is Our GAR Model? A Comparison Across Three Metrics

Benchmarking Hockey Alchemy's GAR against Evolving Hockey and HockeyStats / TopDownHockey across standings R², year-over-year repeatability, and player-rank agreement. Across 16 seasons we lead on standings prediction and YoY stability — and intentionally diverge on individual rankings.